A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
