Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
